2026 Senate Predictions
Click on any state to see detailed forecasts and key factors
Democrats
47
Solid/Likely/Lean
Toss-up
6
51 for majority
Republicans
47
Solid/Likely/Lean
Dems need 4 of 6 toss-ups for majority
Democratic Control
43.0%
Republican Control
57.0%
Median Dem Seats
50
80% Range
46–53
Majority Line
51 / 100
Democrats need 51 seats — the GOP Vice President breaks 50-50 ties. Model: rating-implied margins + a D+0.5 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) + correlated national error (±3 pts, weighted by historical polling misses) + independent race-level error (±4 pts) across 20,000 simulated elections. Results are fixed for a given set of ratings — they only move when the forecast itself changes.
Click on a state to see detailed predictions
AI-Powered Deep Analysis
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Toss-up Races
MI
D: Abdul El-Sayed
R: Mike Rogers
OH
D: Sherrod Brown
R: Jon Husted (incumbent)
TX
D: James Talarico
R: Ken Paxton
ME
D: Troy Jackson (replacement nominee)
R: Susan Collins (incumbent)
IA
D: Josh Turek
R: Ashley Hinson
AK
D: Mary Peltola
R: Dan Sullivan (incumbent)