2026 Senate Predictions
Click on any state to see detailed forecasts and key factors
Democrats
46
Solid/Likely/Lean
Toss-up
7
51 for majority
Republicans
47
Solid/Likely/Lean
Dems need 5 of 7 toss-ups for majority
Democratic Control
41.7%
Republican Control
58.3%
Median Dem Seats
50
80% Range
46–53
Majority Line
51 / 100
Democrats need 51 seats — the GOP Vice President breaks 50-50 ties. Model: rating-implied margins + correlated national error (±3 pts, weighted by historical polling misses) + independent race-level error (±4 pts) across 20,000 simulated elections. Results are fixed for a given set of ratings — they only move when the forecast itself changes.
Click on a state to see detailed predictions
AI-Powered Deep Analysis
Get comprehensive AI-driven insights on key races, incumbency factors, and paths to majority
Toss-up Races
MI
D: Abdul El-Sayed
R: Mike Rogers
OH
D: Sherrod Brown
R: Jon Husted (incumbent)
TX
D: James Talarico
R: Ken Paxton
ME
D: Troy Jackson
R: Susan Collins (incumbent)
IA
D: Josh Turek
R: Ashley Hinson
AK
D: Mary Peltola
R: Dan Sullivan (incumbent)
NH
D: Chris Pappas
R: John E. Sununu