2026 Midterms Overview
Every topline in one place — Senate, House and Governor forecasts alongside the national environment.
-19.7%
38.9% approve · 58.6% disapprove
D+8.2
50.4% D · 42.2% R
38
November 3, 2026
Senate
Democrats
46
Toss-up
7
Republicans
47
45% Democratic control odds
Democrats need 51 — the GOP Vice President breaks 50-50 ties.
House
Democrats
211
Toss-up
18
Republicans
206
83% Democratic control odds
218 for a majority. Post-redistricting maps in TX, CA, FL, MO, NC, OH and UT.
Governors
Democrats
18
Toss-up
4
Republicans
14
36 gubernatorial races. Toss-ups: AK, GA, NV and OH.
Latest Ratings Changes
How we rate races →Sep 25, 2026
National EnvironmentD+8.0 · Trump -18.6 D+8.2 · Trump -19.7
Silver Bulletin’s generic ballot hit a cycle high of D+8.1; Emerson has Democrats up 53-42 and Marist 53-41. Trump approval posted new lows in three polls this week (Reuters/Ipsos 32/66, Echelon 36/64).
Sep 25, 2026
Senate Control OddsGOP 66% Dem 45%
Cook now calls Senate control a true Toss-up. Texas flips to a Talarico edge, Ohio moves to EVEN, and Iowa tightens after Marist’s Turek +8. Kalshi (63%) and Polymarket (66%) favor Democrats; we still price in each state’s historical polling miss.
Sep 25, 2026
Texas SenateToss-up (R+1) Toss-up (D+0.5)
Marist (Sep 23) Talarico 50-44 and TPOR (Sep 25) 49-44; every September poll has Talarico ahead.
Sep 25, 2026
Ohio Senate (Special)Toss-up (R+0.5) Toss-up (EVEN)
Quantus (Sep 24) tied 47-47; Trafalgar has Brown +3.
Sep 25, 2026
Iowa SenateToss-up (R+4) Toss-up (R+2)
Marist (Sep 22) Turek 50-42; Sabato moved Iowa to Toss-up on Sep 22.
Control odds come from the PolitiVoice Forecast — 20,000 seeded simulated elections with correlated national error. Read the full methodology →