2026 House Predictions
Click on any state to see competitive district forecasts
Democrats
208
Solid/Likely/Lean
Toss-up
18
218 for majority
Republicans
209
Solid/Likely/Lean
Dems need 10 of 18 toss-ups for majority
Democratic Control
77.4%
Republican Control
22.6%
Median Dem Seats
227
80% Range
211–244
Majority Line
218 / 435
218 seats needed for a House majority. Model: rating-implied margins + a D+2 national environment (generic ballot D+8.0) + correlated national error (±3 pts, weighted by historical polling misses) + independent race-level error (±6 pts) across 20,000 simulated elections. Results are fixed for a given set of ratings — they only move when the forecast itself changes.
Click on a state to see detailed predictions
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Top 20 Most Competitive Districts
TX-09
TX
TX-32
TX
TX-33
TX
TX-35
TX
TX-37
TX
FL-09
FL
FL-14
FL
FL-22
FL
FL-25
FL
CA-03
CA
CA-22
CA
CA-40
CA
CA-41
CA
CA-27
CA
NC-01
NC
OH-10
OH
UT-04
UT
CA-13
CA
CA-22
CA
NC-11
NC