National EnvironmentD+8.2 · Trump -19.7 D+8.4 · Trump -20.9

Silver Bulletin’s generic ballot reached a new high of D+8.9 and CBS/YouGov shows D+9; DDHQ is lower at D+6.9. Trump approval fell to 38.5 in RCP, and DDHQ puts his net rating at -23.

Senate Control OddsDem 45% Dem 44%

Kansas tightens, but Maine moves back toward Collins after a fuller correction for her history of beating polls.

Maine SenateToss-up (D+1.5) Toss-up (R+2)

Polls average about Jackson +2.5 (Marist 51-47), but Collins beat her 2020 polling by roughly 13 points. We now apply that history in full and give Collins a slight edge.

Kansas SenateLean R (R+4) Lean R (R+2.5)

The 10-poll average is now tied 46-46. We still discount it given Kansas’s history.

Maine GovernorLean D (D+3) Likely D (D+7)

Marist (Oct 6) Pingree 52, Charles 40, Bennett 6.