Texas SenateToss-up (R+4) Toss-up (R+1.5)

Nominees set: Talarico (D) vs. Paxton (R). Talarico has out-raised Paxton $66M-$9M and leads the August polling average by ~2.

Michigan SenateToss-up (D+0.5) Toss-up (D+1.5)

El-Sayed won the primary and averages +2 over Rogers across four August polls.

Maine SenateToss-up (R+2.5) Toss-up (R+3)

Troy Jackson replaces Platner as Democratic nominee after his July withdrawal — the reset costs months of runway against Collins.

Nevada GovernorToss-up (D+0.9) Lean R (R+4.5)

Nevada polling has understated Republicans in consecutive cycles and Lombardo holds positive approval.

Vermont GovernorSafe R (R+15) Safe R (R+38)

Scott won by 41, 47 and 49 in his last three races — the prior margin badly understated him.